The Year–To–Date average extent is still 4th lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. Now all 4 lowest years are also the 4 latest years: 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019. Next target is 2017.
In early March we went beyond the 14 mark for the first time since November 2016, by averaging higher than 14 thousand km³ sea ice volume. Now the 365–day running average for sea ice volume has flatlined, and we’ll see by June 1st if it goes up or down.
The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is now lower than 9.99 million km² and dropping by about 14 thousand km² per month. The light–green confidence interval suggests 2019 might go lowest on record for all–year average.
Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 5% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per May 17th. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 4%.
Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 21% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per May 16th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, by the same date, was also at 21%.
Good Hope Model May 15: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2023. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 4 years?
You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:
Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Daily Arctic sea ice volume is currently 5th lowest, the 2019 Melt Season average is also 5th. 2017 is the lowest year on record for volume, you see how much lower than #2–5. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubborn.