Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 62% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per July 30th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was at 57%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 73% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per July 29th. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 70%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic Sea Ice Volume

Sunday daily Arctic sea ice volume was already lower than the September minimums of 29 years; 1979–2006 + 2008, with about 50 more melt days to go. 2019 Melt Season average is still 2nd lowest. Ten–Year Trend though, is very stubborn.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

#GoodHopeModel July 27: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Chances of a 2019 Blue Ocean Event

In late July on this experimental plot, chances are approaching 25% for a late summer ice–free event in the Arctic Ocean. This means the potential is still low, but on the other hand the real action starts in August with this CAB area indicator for a Blue Ocean Event.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data
Q: How do you calculate the chance percentage?
A: It’s a bit complicated, but the % is based on the loss we need in order to have a BOE, and whether or not we melt the required area in the CAB, day by day.
Q: Why focus only on the CAB?
A: CAB, or Central Arctic Basin, held 99.7% of the remaining ice area at minimum in Sep 2012.

Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is now lower than 9.93 million km² and dropping by about 48 thousand km² per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

The 365–day running average for sea ice volume is now lower than 13.86 thousand km³ and dropping by about 117 km³ per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go 2nd lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 68% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per July 22nd. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 65%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 56% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per July 21st. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was at 52%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Abrupt Green New Deal

Ambivalent about the Green New Deal? Here’s a deal that is coming anyway, no matter what you vote. No matter what you eat, wear, think or drive, the Abrupt Green New Deal is on the horizon near you.

Talking South episode 6 on the Green New Deal.

We’re all familiar with the term ‘climate change’, and online encyclopaedias even provide definitions:

The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties (principally its mean and spread) of the climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause.

Wikipedia

Its more hip & happening younger cousin ‘abrupt climate change’ is maybe not so familiar:

An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to transition to a new climate state at a rate that is determined by the climate system energy-balance, and which is more rapid than the rate of change of the external forcing.

Wikipedia

In similar manner we may define the new hot potato in the political Anglosphere:

The Green New Deal (GND) is a proposed United States economic stimulus package that aims to address climate change and economic inequality.

Wikipedia

The Abrupt Green New Deal

The Abrupt Green New Deal is very different from this partisan, single–national and support dependent proposal. Call it an indecent proposal if you will, for it presents itself without even proposing that you go along with it. It will just be, and you’ll be like: WTF. It’ll be BOE & sorry, no groceries. No milk today. It won’t be backed by Congress or the Senate. It will just be. Just like abrupt climate change is. It might have been a time for celebration of equal pay (as there’ll be no more paid jobs), complete stop to all pipeline projects, abandonment of the tar sands, closedown of coal mines and oil & gas fields, return of land to the Indians, the return of all troops, and the final end to the Trump presidency, if it wasn’t for the fact you ran out of food. And potable water. Plus the toilets stopped working. And what’s that noise from the outside?

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.