In the Arctic, the sea ice volume 4-yr average reached a new record low this week due to climate change. The new milestone was 13.7 thousand km³.
The Year–To–Date average extent is still 3rd lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. And all 5 lowest years are also the 5 latest years: 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019. Next target is 2018.
Yesterday daily Arctic sea ice volume was already lower than the September minimums of 8 years; 1979-80, 1983, 1986-89 and 1992, with about 90 more melt days to go. 2019 Melt Season average is 3rd lowest. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubborn.
After Summer Solstice on this new plot, chances seem to stabilise on about 12% for a late summer ice–free event in the Arctic Ocean. This means the potential is low, but on the other hand the real action starts in July with this indicator for a Blue Ocean Event.
The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is lower than 9.98 million km² and dropping by about 9 thousand km² per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go lowest on record for all–year average.
The 365–day running average for sea ice volume is now likely lower than 14 thousand km³ and dropping by about 58 km³ per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go 2nd lowest on record for all–year average.
Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 33% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per June 22nd. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 34%.
Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 34% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per June 21st. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was also 34%.
#GoodHopeModel June 20: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?
You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube: