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Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The Year–To–Date average volume is still 5th lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. Next target is 2016.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.
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Four Year Average at new Record Low

In the Arctic, the sea ice volume 4-yr average reached a new record low this week due to climate change. The new milestone was 13.7 thousand km³.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a 4–year average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 4×365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest 4–year period compared to the 4–year periods before that.
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Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent is still 3rd lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. And all 5 lowest years are also the 5 latest years: 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019. Next target is 2018.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.
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Arctic Sea Ice Volume

Yesterday daily Arctic sea ice volume was already lower than the September minimums of 8 years; 1979-80, 1983, 1986-89 and 1992, with about 90 more melt days to go. 2019 Melt Season average is 3rd lowest. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubborn.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.
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Chances of a 2019 Blue Ocean Event

After Summer Solstice on this new plot, chances seem to stabilise on about 12% for a late summer ice–free event in the Arctic Ocean. This means the potential is low, but on the other hand the real action starts in July with this indicator for a Blue Ocean Event.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data
Q: How do you calculate the chance percentage?
A: It’s a bit complicated, but the % is based on the loss we need in order to have a BOE, and whether or not we melt the required area in the CAB, day by day.
Q: Why focus only on the CAB?
A: CAB, or Central Arctic Basin, held 99.7% of the remaining ice area at minimum in Sep 2012.
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Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is lower than 9.98 million km² and dropping by about 9 thousand km² per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.
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Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

The 365–day running average for sea ice volume is now likely lower than 14 thousand km³ and dropping by about 58 km³ per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go 2nd lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.
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Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 33% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per June 22nd. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 34%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

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Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 34% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per June 21st. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was also 34%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.
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½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

#GoodHopeModel June 20: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model, explained further in the YouTube below, has recently gone through quality control updates & control calculations (which you should ALWAYS do to check that your math is right). Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already registered ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube: