Abrupt Green New Deal

Ambivalent about the Green New Deal? Here’s a deal that is coming anyway, no matter what you vote. No matter what you eat, wear, think or drive, the Abrupt Green New Deal is on the horizon near you.

Talking South episode 6 on the Green New Deal.

We’re all familiar with the term ‘climate change’, and online encyclopaedias even provide definitions:

The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties (principally its mean and spread) of the climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause.

Wikipedia

Its more hip & happening younger cousin ‘abrupt climate change’ is maybe not so familiar:

An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to transition to a new climate state at a rate that is determined by the climate system energy-balance, and which is more rapid than the rate of change of the external forcing.

Wikipedia

In similar manner we may define the new hot potato in the political Anglosphere:

The Green New Deal (GND) is a proposed United States economic stimulus package that aims to address climate change and economic inequality.

Wikipedia

The Abrupt Green New Deal

The Abrupt Green New Deal is very different from this partisan, single–national and support dependent proposal. Call it an indecent proposal if you will, for it presents itself without even proposing that you go along with it. It will just be, and you’ll be like: WTF. It’ll be BOE & sorry, no groceries. No milk today. It won’t be backed by Congress or the Senate. It will just be. Just like abrupt climate change is. It might have been a time for celebration of equal pay (as there’ll be no more paid jobs), complete stop to all pipeline projects, abandonment of the tar sands, closedown of coal mines and oil & gas fields, return of land to the Indians, the return of all troops, and the final end to the Trump presidency, if it wasn’t for the fact you ran out of food. And potable water. Plus the toilets stopped working. And what’s that noise from the outside?

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

#GoodHopeModel July 20: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The Year–To–Date average volume is still 4th lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. Next target is 2011/2018.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent is still 3rd lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. And all 5 lowest years are also the 5 latest years: 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019. Next target is 2018.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic Burns Through 1979–2006 Late Summer Minimums by July 17

Tuesday daily Arctic sea ice volume was already lower than the September minimums of 28 years; 1979–2006, with about 60 more melt days to go. 2019 Melt Season average is 2nd lowest. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubborn.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

The 365–day running average for sea ice volume is now lower than 13.88 thousand km³ and dropping by about 125 km³ per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go 2nd lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Three Year Average at new Record Low

In the Arctic, the sea ice volume 3-yr average reached a new record low last week due to climate change. The new milestone was 13.4 thousand km³.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a 3–year average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3×365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest 3–year period compared to the 3–year periods before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is now lower than 9.95 million km² and dropping by about 31 thousand km² per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic Sea Ice at 50%

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 50% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per July 13th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was at 48%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

At 50% for sea ice volume meltdown, 2019 was 1 day behind 2012, down from 3 days behind at 25%. Currently, 2019 looks set to reach 75% within July, which would be a first in the satellite record.

At half–time for the year 2019, decadal averages for the 2010s H1 could be calculated. For the first 6 months of the year, the 2010s on average were at 19,861 km³. That’s down from 23,539 km³ for the 2000s, which amounts to a 15.6% drop per decade. (The 2nd half of the year has a much larger drop, but we’ll get to that when the data is in.)

The 2010s Q2 Average was 20,353 km³, down from 24,372 km³ for the 2000s, which means a 16.5% drop per decade. The 2010s Q1 Average was 19,364 km³, down from 22,697 km³ for the 2000s, which amounts to a 14.7% drop per decade. Please note how all of these decadal loss percentages are larger than the BS NASA drop rate of 12.8%, which is published for political purposes, and please also note that the drop rate will increase for Q3 & Q4 of the 2010s decade, as Q1 & Q2 have the smallest drop of the year. Also expect the full year decadal drop rate for the 2010s from the 2000s to be larger than 16.5% (Q2 drop rate), and of course way larger than the Wishful Thinking 12.8% drop rate from NASA.

And if you happen to be an Abrupt Climate Change Denier, send your thanks to NASA, as that’s your tax money at work, if you’re a citizen of the USA. As long as they lie to you every day, you don’t have to worry about a thing.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Five Year Average at new Record Low

In the Arctic, the sea ice volume 5-yr average reached a new record low this week due to climate change. The new milestone was 14.1 thousand km³.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a 5–year average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 5×365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest 5–year period compared to the 5–year periods before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.