Arctic Update Mid–June

Thank God there are still simple matters in life where you don’t have to wonder or ponder about what actor did what to whom. And the abrupt disappearance of ice in the Arctic is just such a matter: No one did squat to stop it, and that’s why it’s going away.

Take the 5-year average for sea ice as an example: Does it display a downward trend? And is that trend rather steep & aggressive? The correct answer to both of these questions is Yes, indeed. On the 21st of May, the average went below 13.7 k km³ for the first time on record (1979-2020), meaning the average of every single day for the past 5 years is lower than the average of any other 5-yr period on record.

Another way of saying that is where we are now is the lowest we’ve ever been. Of course in terms of a 5-yr average for sea ice volume. That gives us the long–term perspective, but of course there are other ways of looking at the Arctic. In fact there are plenty of ways.

In the short–term, there’s the annual or one–year average volume, where we remember that 2019 was the 2nd lowest of all. The lowest year, first proclaimed by this blog’s predecessor, was of course 2017. That year is still the only one on record to average below 13 k km³.

Many people and even some ‘experts’ still believe 2012 was the lowest year, but it was beaten by 2017, and now even 2019 is lower:

Annual sea ice volume graph from PIOMAS at Uni–Washington.

One of the many reasons people still believe 2012 is lowest, is that unlike temperature, which is always referred to in annual averages, sea ice tends to be measured by one day only, usually a September day. In a way, that would be like measuring the entire year’s planetary temperature by One day that you choose and for One spot that you also choose, you know, like that One day in June back in 5th grade when it snowed in Southern Norway. Is it representative for the entire planet, and the entire year? Of course not, it’s the kind of trick a climate–denier would play.

But granted, it IS also interesting to look for the absolute minimum amount of ice at the far end of the summer melt season. Could we have an ice–free Arctic this year, a so–called Blue Ocean Event? Well, not according to this plot:

Here it’s only a 3% chance that the September minimum this year will be ice–free, defined as less than a million km² sea ice area in the CAB, or Central Arctic Basin. The app behind the plot calculates the melt needed for every day till melt ends, and then compares the melt actually observed for that day, to the ‘needed’ melt. If no days can show enough ice melt, the % will be 0, and if half the days meet the demands, chance will be 50%. We can see 2020 being last in line of the past 5 years, meaning at this stage of the melt, we’re not very impressed by 2020’s performance. (Although it can be argued that the inner, most freezing part of the floating ice doesn’t start melting regularly before Summer Solstice and perhaps July.) Of course, a Blue Ocean Event never happened before in documented history, so a lot of eyes are fixed on this statistic and this eventuality only.

Some people like to look at the ice ‘directly’, or through satellite censors, in order to judge the progress by ice coverage in particular places, or degree of melt pond formation. Here we got tons of melt ponds on the sea ice, in a picture of the Nares Strait (right) and the Nansen Fjord, the planet’s longest fjord (left). Bottom middle you can see the famous ‘arc’, or the arc-shaped ice edge within the Nares Strait. The strait has been known to open or stay shut at widely varying times and periods of the year, and it does transport a fair amount of ice out of the Arctic, but the truly big export channel is of course the Fram Strait to the East of Greenland, named after polar explorer Nansen’s vessel and expedition. A fun fact is, if the Nares were a freshwater river, and not an ocean water strait or stream, its flow of water would be 10 times that of the Amazon river in terms of volume, which is interesting because the Nares is actually one–directional and thus acts like a river.

Uni–Hamburg has the most high–resolution sea ice concentration product on the web, and when you zoom it or view it like the above, you get a very quick overview of where we’re at. This is from June 15th.

Finally, I’ve included the Japanese interpretation of the daily sea ice volume for June 15. They say it’ll be a melting season out of the ordinary, so let’s follow closely what happens, when it happens!

2010s Decade: 4,000 km³ less ice than the 2000s

Methane & other strong feedbacks led to huge sea ice differences in late June in the 2010s, with the smallest diff in April & December. 24-hr sunshine provides OH– radicals that remove Arctic CH4 from the air.

Sea ice in the 2010s decade compared to the 2000s decade. Greatest diff in late June.

— Stop Adani!

Too late to act. Cry Every Day.

22% Sea Ice Loss per Decade this Millennium

So, how much ice did we lose from the previous decade to this one? Let’s start with the good news, shall we? We lost only 6.7% flat, binary, 2D surface cover. What the bad news is? Well, we lost 22.0% of the sea ice. So there’s that….

One of the main reasons I designed this graph, was to detox victims of Big Oil propaganda lies like these:

«The annual average JAXA SIE is dropping at 0.6M sqkm/decade with greater loss through the summer (Jul-Sept) 0.8M sqkm/decade and lesser loss through the icy seasons (Jan-Jun) 0.45M sqkm/decade. For completeness, Autumn (Oct-Dec) is dropping at 0.64M sqkm/decade.»


MA Rodger, Jan 1, 2020

These guys and their financial backers like to focus on the slightly dropping red graph below when they summarise a decade’s worth of sea ice loss. They’ll say “we lost less than 7% sea ice!” when in reality we lost 22%. They’re like the UN and the IPCC, lying through their teeth to kids all over the planet about their future life here on Earth. They ought to be ashamed of themselves, but their tactic is instead to make YOU feel shame for telling the naked truth.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Ice Volume for October 2019 from PIOMAS and here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

6–month ice–free in just 4–15 years?

#GoodHopeModel January 1: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 4–15 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for October 2019 from PIOMAS

About that: During the 6th episode of the Talking South talkshow on November 7th last year, Going South predicted that the Deep State / Military Industrial Complex would collapse along with Civilisation during the 2020s or 2030s, and here in August Pentagon confirms this analysis in its own report:

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

For some of the consequences of a summer half year Blue Ocean Event, press Play:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

2nd Lowest Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

The 365–day running average for sea ice volume is still 2nd lowest and lower than 13.47 thousand km³, dropping by about 76 km³ per month. The prognosis suggests we’ll go lower than 2012 for the all–year average, pushing 2012 to #3 for low sea ice.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for October 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Climate Crush TV launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

2nd Lowest Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is now lower than 9.76 million km² and rising by about 1 thousand km² per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 will likely be 2nd lowest on record for the all–year average for sea ice cover.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

2nd Lowest Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent is now 2nd lowest on record. 4 of the 5 lowest years are also the 4 latest years: 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019. These 4 will now knock 2012 down to #5 for the full year.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

2nd Lowest Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The Year–To–Date average is still 2nd lowest for sea ice volume in the Arctic. The full year 2019 will likely be 2nd lowest, as the #1 spot held by 2017 is just completely out of the picture. 2020 might have a chance if we have an el–niño.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for October 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

3rd Lowest Freeze Season Average | Arctic Sea Ice

This year’s freeze season started September 15th, and since the minimum on the day before that, the season average has been the 3rd lowest on record. 2016 is in the lead, 2012 close behind. Ten–Year Trend, though, is still very stubbornly all–time low.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for October 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

14th lowest Arctic sea ice extent refreeze

Arctic sea ice extent refreeze has come 79% of the way from Summer Minimum to full refreeze per December 25th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was at 75%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a full refreeze?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have e.g a 10 million km² extent melt, and then the refreeze is also 10 million km², then you have a full, or 100%, refreeze.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice refreezes compared to how much ice that melted away.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.