Late October Arctic

We’re into the last two weeks of October, and there’s no snow here in Greenland’s capital Nuuk. For sure, the data from the satellites & models says there’s 0% chance of a 2020 Blue Ocean Event, but what does that really mean?

We’re gonna look into that, and unpack it.

So, obviously, a zero % chance of a 2020 BOE means a BOE won’t occur in 2020, yet at the same time, it doesn’t mean other big stuff can’t happen in 2020. Like, scary stuff, stuff you wished you’d never even heard about.

For instance, if you ask any meteorologist, he’ll say that 2016 was the warmest year on record, globally. He won’t say some YEAR was hottest because on one DAY some extreme location like Death Valley set a new heat record. So, for sea ice, while 2016 was the lowest year for extent, and 2017 for volume, this 2020 may very well end up being the lowest ever for sea ice extent. We’ll just have to wait till December 31st so we have a full YEAR of data.

Another thing is, you have this record low area of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, and these crazy waves and high temperatures, with winter storms coming and going, so before you know it the entire thing could go up in flames due to submerged permafrost, that is under these crazy warm, stormy and shallow seas, north of Siberia. This is the stuff that makes Russian scientists break down in tears during press conferences.

So yeah, that could happen.

That could still happen in 2020, ice-free Arctic or not.

Because October–November is the warmest slash waviest time of the year for those shallow bodies of water in the Arctic. A handful of wonderful social media personas will watch and inform you when or if that happens, if you don’t notice it all by yourself in a very different and perhaps much scarier way.

So, back to the least scary scenario from the above, the race is now on for 2020 (the challenger) to smash 2016 (current record holder) for lowest sea ice extent on record. In fact, 2020 leads the heat by quite a big margin already, measured as year-to-date average:

Per November 22nd, 2020 leads current record holder 2016 by a significant margin. After 327 days, ice is added for each date and divided by 327 (definition of a Year To Date average).

2016 in its day of course beat 2012 in almost complete silence, as all the Mainstream Media had decided that it failed in September and that the shop closes in September, and some newspapers even ‘celebrated’ the fact 2016 refroze quickly for the first week or so after its minimum, while ignoring the larger development, which was the record slow regrowth in September–October–November. Covering that fact would of course be less ‘positive’ or ‘optimistic’, so let’s not waste any ‘journalistic’ resources on that!

Beating 2016, which itself beat 2012 four years ago, first of all would make it more difficult for the media and polluticians to ignore the fact 2012 now is only 6th lowest, when they’d rather keep cherry-picking the month of September and pretend nothing much happens in the Arctic these days. Don’t believe me? Read a newspaper, listen to a pollutician.

Returning to the Shock & Awe horror of the Ice–Free Arctic, the 0% chance of a Blue Ocean Event in 2020 of course doesn’t mean it cannot happen in the coming years, or even the very next year. Those who follow the sea ice closely will tell you that May is too early to tell, June is slightly better, but a high or low risk of BOE at the end of summer can’t really be assessed before July, and then preferably the latter half of the month.

Anyone telling you otherwise is just bluffing, really.

You can say that the 2020s are more likely than the 2030s to feature the FIRST BOE in our species’ history on the Planet. But you can’t really tell during spring whether the CURRENT year will see such an event or not. This is because the system is complex, with lots of inherent natural variability. A constantly warming Arctic Ocean will increase the probability every year, but the sea itself is only one out of a multitude of factors in the Arctic.

The True Terror of the Ice–Free Arctic state is really the full-summer ice-free Arctic, like July–October below 1 million km², or even more extreme, June–November below that mark. This opens the Arctic Ocean to insolation, which is just sunshine, entering into the dark sea surface and heating it tremendously, and of course more and more for every year it persists. In fact, it’s hard to imagine it not continuing year on year, when it first starts happening. While the very first year of ice-free-for-a-week-or-so will do little except raise a few eyebrows and make it more difficult to campaign for other issues, which seems to be the main human focus, for polluticians and activists alike, the Summer–Half Ice–Free will allegedly be equivalent to adding 1 trillion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, or set us back 25 years in our struggle to limit emissions to ‘safe’ levels. In fact, when reading the fine-print of that study, you’ll see that a possible change to Arctic cloud formation in such a hotter world, will triple that, so 3 trillion tons of CO2 or 75 years. If you factor in methane as well, because the submerged permafrost cannot thrive in such a hot Arctic Ocean, a conservative estimate will land you at a 100 years lost in that already optimistic struggle, as laid out in this merry YouTube video from the beach here in South Central Nuuk:

One Hundred Years?

Although that’s merely what might happen going forward. Wanna look at what already HAS happened? I didn’t think so. But here goes: The Ice Tipping Point, in the literature often referred to as a cascade of intertwined climate tipping points, or Climate Dominos, to be more visual, causing all of this we see happening every day, isn’t something in the future that we must try to avoid, but rather something even your parents were too young to remember. If you want to be kind, you could say 1970, but honestly it’s more like 1950. So let’s do the math, shall we:

When we get to an Ice–Free Arctic in the Summer Half of the year, the ‘friendly’ math says we’ll be 50 + 25 = 75 years too late for the Ice Tipping Point. The honest math says we’re 70 + 100 = 170 years late. Which one do you choose? As if you had a vote.

What’s more, assuming we somehow won’t get an Ice–Free Arctic in the Summer Half of the year anytime soon, the math still puts us 50 years after the fact, in the ‘friendly’ scenario, or rather 70 years too late to avoid the major Ice Tipping Point.

Do you ever get the feeling you’re being lied to on climate? I know exactly what you mean.

Finally, I know I didn’t get this from Derrick Jensen, and I assume he didn’t get it from me. For me it was a case of reinforced message because I already thought it myself before reading it again from someone else. I’m too lazy to look up his exact words, so this is from my memory only.

Even a thing like Knowledge (of specific climate facts) is no longer binary. Meaning there’s Knowledge, and then there’s Knowledge, but then even Knowledge. This translates to ‘knowing’ a certain tragic fact about our climate in your head, versus knowing it in your heart, versus KNOWING it at a cellular level, making it hard to even get out of bed in the morning. Climate Reality is just full of such things that are no longer binary, and that just get worse and worse every time you reflect upon them.

Derrick Jensen (live from my memory).

And still, it is ONLY industrial civilisation that’s 100% doomed, life not so much!

Sea Ice Lies and Why People Post Them — Part 2

Beavies & Butthead ought to make an attempt at reading this post, which examines a claim from a tweeter who’s very confident our first Blue Ocean Event is many decades away, and who claims it can’t happen this year. The post proves 100% he is lying about this summer, question is more like, why?

Another interesting question is how many paid scientists make similar mistakes or intentional errors, because they’re so careless, lazy or determined to prove that we’re safe for at least 2 or 3 decades?

I recently brought a climate scientist from Bergen, Norway, where I was born, to silence after he admitted that his 100% linear logic, as published in Norwegian media, for why the 2D ice extent that had taken 40 years to reduce by half, would need another 40 years to go to zero, was likely wrong and too conservative, as he also admitted we should really be looking at 3D volume, where trends look a lot more dire.

I’ve explained to him, and tried with others, my point that it’s not up to him or me to choose between 2D extent and 3D volume of the ice, when estimating when it finally crashes. There’s a way sea ice works, and for that way it has a 3D body, swimming in the Arctic Ocean.

The problem of having one conservative and admittedly wrong scientist in one particular Scandinavian city wouldn’t be so bad, if he didn’t publish the official word on the ice situation in the national media, or if his sloppy science wasn’t also characteristic of the entire UN and its so–called Panel on Climate, the IPCC. For they also much prefer the far cosier and more slow–moving trends of 2D extent demise of the ice.

Why do they lie, or why do they “make all these stupid mistakes”? Well, it’s no longer a question of mere mistakes, when it repeats in assessment report after assessment report, often 7 or more years apart. Clearly, this is a waiting game, with huge profits involved for every new period of 7 years that everyone waits to see if they finally get it right. For we cannot close down the gas stations, the car sales and airports before they do.

Another benefit of making such mistakes, is young snotty self–proclaimed “Fact Checkers” like Beavies & Butthead here, will find their high-authority sloppy reports and quote them against people with real insight, whenever they want to publish a hastily researched so–called “Fact Check”. And see, they’ve debunked every resource person on climate change over the age of 25 in Extinction Rebellion! Easy.

Sea Ice Lies and Why People Post Them

Let’s pick this lie and its lying liar apart, shall we?

We know we haven’t seen ‘a perfect storm of meteorologically possible weather conditions’ for even a day in Summer 2020, but we know we lost about 81,000 km² of sea ice area from the Central Arctic Basin (CAB) on the 6th of July:

Daily Sea Ice Area Losses in the CAB, with July 6th highlighted.

It could be argued that ‘a perfect storm of meteorologically possible weather conditions’ would cause a daily loss of at least 250,000 km², easy, but to be polite, let’s just go with the highest loss this far in the Summer of 2020, 81,000 km². Pete talks about ‘a perfect storm of meteorologically possible weather conditions for the remainder of the melt season’, so every single day we’ll get this high loss. Let’s look at where that would land us.

Daily Sea Ice Area Losses in the CAB, with (less than) a perfect storm of meteorologically possible weather conditions for the remainder of the melt season simulated from August 2nd to September 4th.

We can easily see that all it takes is way less than a perfect storm, to take us to a BOE by September 4th. The blue dotted line for ‘Required Loss for a Blue Ocean Event’ bows down to zero, at which point no further losses are needed, as we are already at that 1 million mark.

Even if we had a perfect storm of meteorologically possible weather conditions for the remainder of the melt season,

Yes, as simulated above.

the probability would still be infinitesimally low for a BOE.

Nah, it would be done in the first week of September, even with non-perfect conditions.

We’re probably at least a decade from the first BOE and probably longer.

That’s not your scientific assessment, that’s just what you like to tell yourself, or what you like to pretend outward is your assessment. Let’s keep in mind you said “even IF perfect storm rest of summer” then “BOE probability would still be infinitesimally low”. That is just BS, as with perfect storm conditions the probability would clearly be 100%.

So we have demonstrated that Pete lies blatantly about the sea ice in the Arctic. Everyone knows that Pete lies about the sea ice in the Arctic, but do we know why Pete lies about the sea ice in the Arctic?

Arctic Update Mid–June

Thank God there are still simple matters in life where you don’t have to wonder or ponder about what actor did what to whom. And the abrupt disappearance of ice in the Arctic is just such a matter: No one did squat to stop it, and that’s why it’s going away.

Take the 5-year average for sea ice as an example: Does it display a downward trend? And is that trend rather steep & aggressive? The correct answer to both of these questions is Yes, indeed. On the 21st of May, the average went below 13.7 k km³ for the first time on record (1979-2020), meaning the average of every single day for the past 5 years is lower than the average of any other 5-yr period on record.

Another way of saying that is where we are now is the lowest we’ve ever been. Of course in terms of a 5-yr average for sea ice volume. That gives us the long–term perspective, but of course there are other ways of looking at the Arctic. In fact there are plenty of ways.

In the short–term, there’s the annual or one–year average volume, where we remember that 2019 was the 2nd lowest of all. The lowest year, first proclaimed by this blog’s predecessor, was of course 2017. That year is still the only one on record to average below 13 k km³.

Many people and even some ‘experts’ still believe 2012 was the lowest year, but it was beaten by 2017, and now even 2019 is lower:

Annual sea ice volume graph from PIOMAS at Uni–Washington.

One of the many reasons people still believe 2012 is lowest, is that unlike temperature, which is always referred to in annual averages, sea ice tends to be measured by one day only, usually a September day. In a way, that would be like measuring the entire year’s planetary temperature by One day that you choose and for One spot that you also choose, you know, like that One day in June back in 5th grade when it snowed in Southern Norway. Is it representative for the entire planet, and the entire year? Of course not, it’s the kind of trick a climate–denier would play.

But granted, it IS also interesting to look for the absolute minimum amount of ice at the far end of the summer melt season. Could we have an ice–free Arctic this year, a so–called Blue Ocean Event? Well, not according to this plot:

Here it’s only a 3% chance that the September minimum this year will be ice–free, defined as less than a million km² sea ice area in the CAB, or Central Arctic Basin. The app behind the plot calculates the melt needed for every day till melt ends, and then compares the melt actually observed for that day, to the ‘needed’ melt. If no days can show enough ice melt, the % will be 0, and if half the days meet the demands, chance will be 50%. We can see 2020 being last in line of the past 5 years, meaning at this stage of the melt, we’re not very impressed by 2020’s performance. (Although it can be argued that the inner, most freezing part of the floating ice doesn’t start melting regularly before Summer Solstice and perhaps July.) Of course, a Blue Ocean Event never happened before in documented history, so a lot of eyes are fixed on this statistic and this eventuality only.

Some people like to look at the ice ‘directly’, or through satellite censors, in order to judge the progress by ice coverage in particular places, or degree of melt pond formation. Here we got tons of melt ponds on the sea ice, in a picture of the Nares Strait (right) and the Nansen Fjord, the planet’s longest fjord (left). Bottom middle you can see the famous ‘arc’, or the arc-shaped ice edge within the Nares Strait. The strait has been known to open or stay shut at widely varying times and periods of the year, and it does transport a fair amount of ice out of the Arctic, but the truly big export channel is of course the Fram Strait to the East of Greenland, named after polar explorer Nansen’s vessel and expedition. A fun fact is, if the Nares were a freshwater river, and not an ocean water strait or stream, its flow of water would be 10 times that of the Amazon river in terms of volume, which is interesting because the Nares is actually one–directional and thus acts like a river.

Uni–Hamburg has the most high–resolution sea ice concentration product on the web, and when you zoom it or view it like the above, you get a very quick overview of where we’re at. This is from June 15th.

Finally, I’ve included the Japanese interpretation of the daily sea ice volume for June 15. They say it’ll be a melting season out of the ordinary, so let’s follow closely what happens, when it happens!

2010s Decade: 4,000 km³ less ice than the 2000s

Methane & other strong feedbacks led to huge sea ice differences in late June in the 2010s, with the smallest diff in April & December. 24-hr sunshine provides OH– radicals that remove Arctic CH4 from the air.

Sea ice in the 2010s decade compared to the 2000s decade. Greatest diff in late June.

— Stop Adani!

Too late to act. Cry Every Day.

22% Sea Ice Loss per Decade this Millennium

So, how much ice did we lose from the previous decade to this one? Let’s start with the good news, shall we? We lost only 6.7% flat, binary, 2D surface cover. What the bad news is? Well, we lost 22.0% of the sea ice. So there’s that….

One of the main reasons I designed this graph, was to detox victims of Big Oil propaganda lies like these:

«The annual average JAXA SIE is dropping at 0.6M sqkm/decade with greater loss through the summer (Jul-Sept) 0.8M sqkm/decade and lesser loss through the icy seasons (Jan-Jun) 0.45M sqkm/decade. For completeness, Autumn (Oct-Dec) is dropping at 0.64M sqkm/decade.»


MA Rodger, Jan 1, 2020

These guys and their financial backers like to focus on the slightly dropping red graph below when they summarise a decade’s worth of sea ice loss. They’ll say “we lost less than 7% sea ice!” when in reality we lost 22%. They’re like the UN and the IPCC, lying through their teeth to kids all over the planet about their future life here on Earth. They ought to be ashamed of themselves, but their tactic is instead to make YOU feel shame for telling the naked truth.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Ice Volume for October 2019 from PIOMAS and here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

6–month ice–free in just 4–15 years?

#GoodHopeModel January 1: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 4–15 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for October 2019 from PIOMAS

About that: During the 6th episode of the Talking South talkshow on November 7th last year, Going South predicted that the Deep State / Military Industrial Complex would collapse along with Civilisation during the 2020s or 2030s, and here in August Pentagon confirms this analysis in its own report:

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

For some of the consequences of a summer half year Blue Ocean Event, press Play:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

2nd Lowest Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

The 365–day running average for sea ice volume is still 2nd lowest and lower than 13.47 thousand km³, dropping by about 76 km³ per month. The prognosis suggests we’ll go lower than 2012 for the all–year average, pushing 2012 to #3 for low sea ice.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for October 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Climate Crush TV launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

2nd Lowest Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is now lower than 9.76 million km² and rising by about 1 thousand km² per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 will likely be 2nd lowest on record for the all–year average for sea ice cover.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

2nd Lowest Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent is now 2nd lowest on record. 4 of the 5 lowest years are also the 4 latest years: 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019. These 4 will now knock 2012 down to #5 for the full year.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.