Sea Ice Lies and Why People Post Them — Part 2

Beavies & Butthead ought to make an attempt at reading this post, which examines a claim from a tweeter who’s very confident our first Blue Ocean Event is many decades away, and who claims it can’t happen this year. The post proves 100% he is lying about this summer, question is more like, why?

Another interesting question is how many paid scientists make similar mistakes or intentional errors, because they’re so careless, lazy or determined to prove that we’re safe for at least 2 or 3 decades?

I recently brought a climate scientist from Bergen, Norway, where I was born, to silence after he admitted that his 100% linear logic, as published in Norwegian media, for why the 2D ice extent that had taken 40 years to reduce by half, would need another 40 years to go to zero, was likely wrong and too conservative, as he also admitted we should really be looking at 3D volume, where trends look a lot more dire.

I’ve explained to him, and tried with others, my point that it’s not up to him or me to choose between 2D extent and 3D volume of the ice, when estimating when it finally crashes. There’s a way sea ice works, and for that way it has a 3D body, swimming in the Arctic Ocean.

The problem of having one conservative and admittedly wrong scientist in one particular Scandinavian city wouldn’t be so bad, if he didn’t publish the official word on the ice situation in the national media, or if his sloppy science wasn’t also characteristic of the entire UN and its so–called Panel on Climate, the IPCC. For they also much prefer the far cosier and more slow–moving trends of 2D extent demise of the ice.

Why do they lie, or why do they “make all these stupid mistakes”? Well, it’s no longer a question of mere mistakes, when it repeats in assessment report after assessment report, often 7 or more years apart. Clearly, this is a waiting game, with huge profits involved for every new period of 7 years that everyone waits to see if they finally get it right. For we cannot close down the gas stations, the car sales and airports before they do.

Another benefit of making such mistakes, is young snotty self–proclaimed “Fact Checkers” like Beavies & Butthead here, will find their high-authority sloppy reports and quote them against people with real insight, whenever they want to publish a hastily researched so–called “Fact Check”. And see, they’ve debunked every resource person on climate change over the age of 25 in Extinction Rebellion! Easy.

Sea Ice Lies and Why People Post Them

Let’s pick this lie and its lying liar apart, shall we?

We know we haven’t seen ‘a perfect storm of meteorologically possible weather conditions’ for even a day in Summer 2020, but we know we lost about 81,000 km² of sea ice area from the Central Arctic Basin (CAB) on the 6th of July:

Daily Sea Ice Area Losses in the CAB, with July 6th highlighted.

It could be argued that ‘a perfect storm of meteorologically possible weather conditions’ would cause a daily loss of at least 250,000 km², easy, but to be polite, let’s just go with the highest loss this far in the Summer of 2020, 81,000 km². Pete talks about ‘a perfect storm of meteorologically possible weather conditions for the remainder of the melt season’, so every single day we’ll get this high loss. Let’s look at where that would land us.

Daily Sea Ice Area Losses in the CAB, with (less than) a perfect storm of meteorologically possible weather conditions for the remainder of the melt season simulated from August 2nd to September 4th.

We can easily see that all it takes is way less than a perfect storm, to take us to a BOE by September 4th. The blue dotted line for ‘Required Loss for a Blue Ocean Event’ bows down to zero, at which point no further losses are needed, as we are already at that 1 million mark.

Even if we had a perfect storm of meteorologically possible weather conditions for the remainder of the melt season,

Yes, as simulated above.

the probability would still be infinitesimally low for a BOE.

Nah, it would be done in the first week of September, even with non-perfect conditions.

We’re probably at least a decade from the first BOE and probably longer.

That’s not your scientific assessment, that’s just what you like to tell yourself, or what you like to pretend outward is your assessment. Let’s keep in mind you said “even IF perfect storm rest of summer” then “BOE probability would still be infinitesimally low”. That is just BS, as with perfect storm conditions the probability would clearly be 100%.

So we have demonstrated that Pete lies blatantly about the sea ice in the Arctic. Everyone knows that Pete lies about the sea ice in the Arctic, but do we know why Pete lies about the sea ice in the Arctic?

Arctic Update Mid–June

Thank God there are still simple matters in life where you don’t have to wonder or ponder about what actor did what to whom. And the abrupt disappearance of ice in the Arctic is just such a matter: No one did squat to stop it, and that’s why it’s going away.

Take the 5-year average for sea ice as an example: Does it display a downward trend? And is that trend rather steep & aggressive? The correct answer to both of these questions is Yes, indeed. On the 21st of May, the average went below 13.7 k km³ for the first time on record (1979-2020), meaning the average of every single day for the past 5 years is lower than the average of any other 5-yr period on record.

Another way of saying that is where we are now is the lowest we’ve ever been. Of course in terms of a 5-yr average for sea ice volume. That gives us the long–term perspective, but of course there are other ways of looking at the Arctic. In fact there are plenty of ways.

In the short–term, there’s the annual or one–year average volume, where we remember that 2019 was the 2nd lowest of all. The lowest year, first proclaimed by this blog’s predecessor, was of course 2017. That year is still the only one on record to average below 13 k km³.

Many people and even some ‘experts’ still believe 2012 was the lowest year, but it was beaten by 2017, and now even 2019 is lower:

Annual sea ice volume graph from PIOMAS at Uni–Washington.

One of the many reasons people still believe 2012 is lowest, is that unlike temperature, which is always referred to in annual averages, sea ice tends to be measured by one day only, usually a September day. In a way, that would be like measuring the entire year’s planetary temperature by One day that you choose and for One spot that you also choose, you know, like that One day in June back in 5th grade when it snowed in Southern Norway. Is it representative for the entire planet, and the entire year? Of course not, it’s the kind of trick a climate–denier would play.

But granted, it IS also interesting to look for the absolute minimum amount of ice at the far end of the summer melt season. Could we have an ice–free Arctic this year, a so–called Blue Ocean Event? Well, not according to this plot:

Here it’s only a 3% chance that the September minimum this year will be ice–free, defined as less than a million km² sea ice area in the CAB, or Central Arctic Basin. The app behind the plot calculates the melt needed for every day till melt ends, and then compares the melt actually observed for that day, to the ‘needed’ melt. If no days can show enough ice melt, the % will be 0, and if half the days meet the demands, chance will be 50%. We can see 2020 being last in line of the past 5 years, meaning at this stage of the melt, we’re not very impressed by 2020’s performance. (Although it can be argued that the inner, most freezing part of the floating ice doesn’t start melting regularly before Summer Solstice and perhaps July.) Of course, a Blue Ocean Event never happened before in documented history, so a lot of eyes are fixed on this statistic and this eventuality only.

Some people like to look at the ice ‘directly’, or through satellite censors, in order to judge the progress by ice coverage in particular places, or degree of melt pond formation. Here we got tons of melt ponds on the sea ice, in a picture of the Nares Strait (right) and the Nansen Fjord, the planet’s longest fjord (left). Bottom middle you can see the famous ‘arc’, or the arc-shaped ice edge within the Nares Strait. The strait has been known to open or stay shut at widely varying times and periods of the year, and it does transport a fair amount of ice out of the Arctic, but the truly big export channel is of course the Fram Strait to the East of Greenland, named after polar explorer Nansen’s vessel and expedition. A fun fact is, if the Nares were a freshwater river, and not an ocean water strait or stream, its flow of water would be 10 times that of the Amazon river in terms of volume, which is interesting because the Nares is actually one–directional and thus acts like a river.

Uni–Hamburg has the most high–resolution sea ice concentration product on the web, and when you zoom it or view it like the above, you get a very quick overview of where we’re at. This is from June 15th.

Finally, I’ve included the Japanese interpretation of the daily sea ice volume for June 15. They say it’ll be a melting season out of the ordinary, so let’s follow closely what happens, when it happens!

2010s Decade: 4,000 km³ less ice than the 2000s

Methane & other strong feedbacks led to huge sea ice differences in late June in the 2010s, with the smallest diff in April & December. 24-hr sunshine provides OH– radicals that remove Arctic CH4 from the air.

Sea ice in the 2010s decade compared to the 2000s decade. Greatest diff in late June.

— Stop Adani!

Too late to act. Cry Every Day.

22% Sea Ice Loss per Decade this Millennium

So, how much ice did we lose from the previous decade to this one? Let’s start with the good news, shall we? We lost only 6.7% flat, binary, 2D surface cover. What the bad news is? Well, we lost 22.0% of the sea ice. So there’s that….

One of the main reasons I designed this graph, was to detox victims of Big Oil propaganda lies like these:

«The annual average JAXA SIE is dropping at 0.6M sqkm/decade with greater loss through the summer (Jul-Sept) 0.8M sqkm/decade and lesser loss through the icy seasons (Jan-Jun) 0.45M sqkm/decade. For completeness, Autumn (Oct-Dec) is dropping at 0.64M sqkm/decade.»


MA Rodger, Jan 1, 2020

These guys and their financial backers like to focus on the slightly dropping red graph below when they summarise a decade’s worth of sea ice loss. They’ll say “we lost less than 7% sea ice!” when in reality we lost 22%. They’re like the UN and the IPCC, lying through their teeth to kids all over the planet about their future life here on Earth. They ought to be ashamed of themselves, but their tactic is instead to make YOU feel shame for telling the naked truth.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Ice Volume for October 2019 from PIOMAS and here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

6–month ice–free in just 4–15 years?

#GoodHopeModel January 1: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 4–15 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for October 2019 from PIOMAS

About that: During the 6th episode of the Talking South talkshow on November 7th last year, Going South predicted that the Deep State / Military Industrial Complex would collapse along with Civilisation during the 2020s or 2030s, and here in August Pentagon confirms this analysis in its own report:

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

For some of the consequences of a summer half year Blue Ocean Event, press Play:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

2nd Lowest Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

The 365–day running average for sea ice volume is still 2nd lowest and lower than 13.47 thousand km³, dropping by about 76 km³ per month. The prognosis suggests we’ll go lower than 2012 for the all–year average, pushing 2012 to #3 for low sea ice.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for October 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Climate Crush TV launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

2nd Lowest Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is now lower than 9.76 million km² and rising by about 1 thousand km² per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 will likely be 2nd lowest on record for the all–year average for sea ice cover.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

2nd Lowest Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent is now 2nd lowest on record. 4 of the 5 lowest years are also the 4 latest years: 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019. These 4 will now knock 2012 down to #5 for the full year.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.

2nd Lowest Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The Year–To–Date average is still 2nd lowest for sea ice volume in the Arctic. The full year 2019 will likely be 2nd lowest, as the #1 spot held by 2017 is just completely out of the picture. 2020 might have a chance if we have an el–niño.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for October 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Launched Monday 11/11, CCTV is the Planet’s first 24–hour Climate Channel.