Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 84% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per August 31st. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 81%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-july-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

#GoodHopeModel August 29: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-july-2019-from-piomas/

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

For some of the consequences of a summer half year Blue Ocean Event, press Play:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

The 365–day running average for sea ice volume is now lower than 13.75 thousand km³ and dropping by about 85 km³ per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go 2nd lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-july-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is now lower than 9.88 million km² and dropping by about 44 thousand km² per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Sea Ice Extent Minimum | Top 5

Arctic sea ice extent went below 6 million km² during July for the first time on record, yet 2012 was first below 5. Chart shows 2012 as lowest in mid August, but 2019 extent may still plunge after the recent cyclone.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: Why only 5 years and why these particular years?
A: Elementary. These are the 5 years on record that came closest to a Blue Ocean Event.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Sea Ice Volume Minimum | Top 5

Arctic sea ice volume went below 6 thousand km³ record early (just as for 10, 9, 8 & 7). But this chart shows we didn’t quite manage to beat the 2012 record for first below 5, or 4.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-july-2019-from-piomas/
Q: Why only 5 years and why these particular years?
A: Elementary. These are the 5 years on record that came closest to a Blue Ocean Event.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The Year–To–Date average volume is still 2nd lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. Our last target is record low 2017. Note also that the 2000s average is still not below the 21k upper edge, while this year’s at 16.7. That’s climate change for ya.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-july-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent is still 2nd lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. All 4 lowest years are also the 4 latest years: 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019. The last target is record low 2016.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Are you hoping to witness a BOE? (Poll)

New Blue Ocean Event poll today on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. Below you can read forum member Sam‘s full comment and clarification.

Some perhaps want (as in “desire”) a blue ocean event. Those here who may, don’t do so because they want it. They most often do so because it is now inevitable in the very near term, and they perhaps believe that a BOE might shock other people into understanding the severity of where we are, the urgency and magnitude of what must be done, and to actually do something meaningful. 

However, I think that the problem isn’t that at all. I don’t think anyone on this forum seriously wants or desires a BOE. The folks here understand what a BOE portends. It is the ringing of the bell announcing the beginning of the catastrophic changing of the climate of the world in ways mankind can barely imagine. 

Throughout our society and world, people process information differently. We are not all the same. Much of humanity processes information strongly through the lens of emotion, through fear, desire, and other emotional frames. 

A much smaller part of humanity uses emotion, but separates that from logic, reason, analysis and the like, and processes primarily through reason colored by emotion. 

An even smaller fraction takes this much further and processes information almost exclusively through reason with little involvement of emotion. Others go even farther, and not through choice but by genetic inclination, and simply lack certain emotions. Depending on which emotions they lack, you may find them as firefighters, or as sociopaths; extreme polar opposites.  

The mistake I believe is to presume that when people say, report, suggest, or predict things like a blue ocean event, that that means that they want or desire such a thing. That is a misinterpretation. Commonly that has as its origin the confusion that arises from trying to interpret someone else’s statements based on ones own internal setup. The same happens in reverse of course, with different wording and conclusions, such as someone processing information via logic concluding that another speaker is emotional and therefor irrational. 

More fundamentally, the error starts in presuming that everyone else is just like ourself in how they process information, in what their abilities are, and all manner of other ways. So therefor …. they said XXX, which must then mean that YYY. 

The BOE is coming. Nothing we (all of mankind) can do now will stop that, shy of some damn fool starting a large nuclear exchange and triggering a global winter for a decade. Even then, that will only temporarily delay the BOE. It won’t prevent it.

You should not read those words as me desiring such a thing. Neither should you read it as me fearing one farther off and choosing to try to scare people. Both interpretations would be and are entirely wrong. I mean by my words quite literally what they say, and nothing more. A BOE is coming. It will arrive very soon. And we now lack the ability to stop it. At the very best, using tragic means, we could delay it.

I believe, perhaps wrongly, that the much worse condition of a full year BOE might yet still be avoided. That will require the immediate concerted and united actions of everyone on earth. And those actions will have to be devastatingly large civilization ending scales of action to succeed. 

But, I do not see any chance that humanity will choose to take such bold actions. As a result, I see no chance that we will avoid the much larger catastrophes to follow as a result. 

I don’t desire any of those things. Desire has absolutely nothing to do with it. 

Sam

Arctic Sea Ice Forum

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 74% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per August 21st. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was at 70%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.