Officially 2nd Lowest | Sea Ice Extent Minimum

This week we’ll likely go below 4 million km² for the first time since 2012, but let’s not forget we beat 2016 on Sunday! 2019 Arctic sea ice minimum is officially 2nd lowest on record.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: Why only 5 years and why these particular years?
A: Elementary. These are the 5 years on record that came closest to a Blue Ocean Event.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Not Quite Over Yet | Sea Ice Volume Minimum

2019 was only the 2nd year on record to go below 4 thousand km³. Chart shows we could still beat 2012! More on this in my Sep 26 Season Summary video for the Arctic sea ice.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: Why only 5 years and why these particular years?
A: Elementary. These are the 5 years on record that came closest to a Blue Ocean Event.

UPDATE Sep 15: On the 15th, sea ice volume continued to drop according to the Frozen Earth Algorithm, and by twice as much as the same day 2012 melt. Hopefully, we’ll have fresh ‘real’ data from Wipneus in a day or two, as we are now in mid–month. Just let me emphasise that Wipneus is a Dutch sea ice hobbyist, and his mid–month updates are based on graphic files uploaded by the U of Washington PIOMAS project, which doesn’t publish any raw numbers in the middle of the month.

While sea ice extent figures are published about 300 days a year by the Japanese JAXA space agency, PIOMAS, in fact, only publishes sea ice volume figures about 10 days per year. Yes, you read that right: Only about 10 hours out of a year are spent uploading Arctic sea ice volume numbers to the Interwebs, and according to a tweet from one of the U of Washington PIOMAS scientists, these 10 hours every year are more or less spent in pyjamas in the sofa with a cup of coffee and an iPad. So it’s all on a hobbyist basis, done in their spare time, often in weekends, as these scientists are not supposed to do this most important work during office hours. (It’s even unclear if they get paid for uploading the actual numbers, and editing the 1–2 paragraphs of text — they don’t publish a new article or post — required on their decades old ice web page.) But of course there is a Donate Page, so you can send some money to these government–paid climate scientists.

So, as I was saying, in a day or two we may have more ‘official’ sea ice volume numbers, not just those turned out by the Frozen Earth Algorithm, but these ‘official’ numbers will be published by the Dutch hobbyist Wipneus (he uses a pseudonym for this work), provided he’s not ill or on holiday somewhere, offline. The University of Washington does not itself upload any numbers in the middle of the month, except when they are late at publishing the figures for the previous calendar month.

(In parenthesis, of course, it can be said to be an absurd situation that the most important data — volume — for the arguably most important aspect — Arctic sea ice — of the most important challenge facing humanity — global climate collapse — are entirely published by hobbyists working in their spare time, often in a pyjamas. Still, if you’re not born yesterday, you’ll have noticed that much of the rest of the so–called ‘Adult World’ is equally absurd: It’s like we humans have no compass whatsoever for what’s important and what’s not. Maybe that’s why our civilisation is collapsing?)

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 77% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per September 11th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was at 76%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 86% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per September 10th. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 82%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

#GoodHopeModel September 9: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

For some of the consequences of a summer half year Blue Ocean Event, press Play:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

2019 Qualified for 2nd Lowest on August 27 | Arctic Sea Ice Volume

5 days before August was over, daily Arctic sea ice volume was already lower than the September minimums of 39 years; 1979–2011 + 2013–18, with about 20 more melt days to go. 2019 Melt Season average is 2nd lowest. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubbornly all–time low.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Sea Ice Volume Minimum | Top 5

Arctic sea ice volume went below 6 thousand km³ record early (just as for 10, 9, 8 & 7). But this chart shows we didn’t quite manage to beat the 2012 record for first below 5, or 4.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: Why only 5 years and why these particular years?
A: Elementary. These are the 5 years on record that came closest to a Blue Ocean Event.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS

2019 213   6.371
2019 214   6.244
2019 215   6.119
2019 216   6.001
2019 217   5.895
2019 218   5.800
2019 219   5.719
2019 220   5.637
2019 221   5.524
2019 222   5.422
2019 223   5.325
2019 224   5.238
2019 225   5.135
2019 226   5.039
2019 227   4.948
2019 228   4.881
2019 229   4.809
2019 230   4.757
2019 231   4.707
2019 232   4.659
2019 233   4.606
2019 234   4.565
2019 235   4.513
2019 236   4.425
2019 237   4.344
2019 238   4.305
2019 239   4.266
2019 240   4.240
2019 241   4.224
2019 242   4.191
2019 243   4.170

Columns are Year, Day # and sea ice volume in thousand km³. So for instance volume for August 31st is 4,170 km³. If you want the full dataset since January 1 1979, it’s available from UW.

Sea Ice Extent Minimum | Top 5

Arctic sea ice extent went below 6 million km² during July for the first time on record, yet 2012 was first below 5. Chart shows 2012 as lowest in August, but 2019 extent may still plunge after the recent cyclones.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: Why only 5 years and why these particular years?
A: Elementary. These are the 5 years on record that came closest to a Blue Ocean Event.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 76% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per September 1st. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was also at 76%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.