6 months ice–free in 5–16 years?

#GoodHopeModel November 6: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for September 2019 from PIOMAS

About that: Going South predicted on the 6th episode of the Talking South talkshow on November 7th last year, that the Deep State / Military Industrial Complex would collapse along with Civilisation during the 2020s or 2030s, and here in August Pentagon confirms this analysis in its own report:

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

For some of the consequences of a summer half year Blue Ocean Event, press Play:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Frozen TV

US Military Confirms its own Collapse in Two Decades

#GoodHopeModel October 27: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for September 2019 from PIOMAS

And about that: Going South predicted on the 6th episode of the Talking South talkshow on November 7th last year, that the Deep State / Military Industrial Complex would collapse along with Civilisation during the 2020s or 2030s, and here in August Pentagon confirms this analysis in its own report:

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

For some of the consequences of a summer half year Blue Ocean Event, press Play:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Frozen TV

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

#GoodHopeModel October 19: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for September 2019 from PIOMAS

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

For some of the consequences of a summer half year Blue Ocean Event, press Play:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic Sea Ice Volume for September 2019 from PIOMAS

 2019 244   4.154
 2019 245   4.132
 2019 246   4.101
 2019 247   4.097
 2019 248   4.080
 2019 249   4.072
 2019 250   4.061
 2019 251   4.067
 2019 252   4.064
 2019 253   4.064
 2019 254   4.067
 2019 255   4.062
 2019 256   4.064
 2019 257   4.058
 2019 258   4.070
 2019 259   4.080
 2019 260   4.087
 2019 261   4.114
 2019 262   4.146
 2019 263   4.174
 2019 264   4.230
 2019 265   4.287
 2019 266   4.332
 2019 267   4.365
 2019 268   4.395
 2019 269   4.418
 2019 270   4.442
 2019 271   4.491
 2019 272   4.531
 2019 273   4.568

Columns are Year, Day # and sea ice volume in thousand km³. So for instance volume for September 30th is 4,568 km³. If you want the full dataset since January 1, 1979, it’s available from UW.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

#GoodHopeModel October 5: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

For some of the consequences of a summer half year Blue Ocean Event, press Play:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 77% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per September 21st. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was at 73%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 86% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per September 20th. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 81%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

#GoodHopeModel September 18: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

For some of the consequences of a summer half year Blue Ocean Event, press Play:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Officially 2nd Lowest | Sea Ice Extent Minimum

This week we’ll likely go below 4 million km² for the first time since 2012, but let’s not forget we beat 2016 on Sunday! 2019 Arctic sea ice minimum is officially 2nd lowest on record.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: Why only 5 years and why these particular years?
A: Elementary. These are the 5 years on record that came closest to a Blue Ocean Event.

UPDATE Sep 17:

UPDATE Sep 18:

UPDATE Sep 19:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Not Quite Over Yet | Sea Ice Volume Minimum

2019 was only the 2nd year on record to go below 4 thousand km³. Chart shows we could still beat 2012! More on this in my Sep 26 Season Summary video for the Arctic sea ice.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: Why only 5 years and why these particular years?
A: Elementary. These are the 5 years on record that came closest to a Blue Ocean Event.

UPDATE Sep 15: On the 15th, sea ice volume continued to drop according to the Frozen Earth Algorithm, and by twice as much as the same day 2012 melt. Hopefully, we’ll have fresh ‘real’ data from Wipneus in a day or two, as we are now in mid–month. Just let me emphasise that Wipneus is a Dutch sea ice hobbyist, and his mid–month updates are based on graphic files uploaded by the U of Washington PIOMAS project, which doesn’t publish any raw numbers in the middle of the month.

While sea ice extent figures are published about 300 days a year by the Japanese JAXA space agency, PIOMAS, in fact, only publishes sea ice volume figures about 10 days per year. Yes, you read that right: Only about 10 hours out of a year are spent uploading Arctic sea ice volume numbers to the Interwebs, and according to a tweet from one of the U of Washington PIOMAS scientists, these 10 hours every year are more or less spent in pyjamas in the sofa with a cup of coffee and an iPad. So it’s all on a hobbyist basis, done in their spare time, often in weekends, as these scientists are not supposed to do this most important work during office hours. (It’s even unclear if they get paid for uploading the actual numbers, and editing the 1–2 paragraphs of text — they don’t publish a new article or post — required on their decades old ice web page.) But of course there is a Donate Page, so you can send some money to these government–paid climate scientists.

So, as I was saying, in a day or two we may have more ‘official’ sea ice volume numbers, not just those turned out by the Frozen Earth Algorithm, but these ‘official’ numbers will be published by the Dutch hobbyist Wipneus (he uses a pseudonym for this work), provided he’s not ill or on holiday somewhere, offline. The University of Washington does not itself upload any numbers in the middle of the month, except when they are late at publishing the figures for the previous calendar month.

(In parenthesis, of course, it can be said to be an absurd situation that the most important data — volume — for the arguably most important aspect — Arctic sea ice — of the most important challenge facing humanity — global climate collapse — are entirely published by hobbyists working in their spare time, often in a pyjamas. Still, if you’re not born yesterday, you’ll have noticed that much of the rest of the so–called ‘Adult World’ is equally absurd: It’s like we humans have no compass whatsoever for what’s important and what’s not. Maybe that’s why our civilisation is collapsing?)

UPDATE Sep 17:

UPDATE Sep 18:

UPDATE Sep 19:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.