2019 was only the 2nd year on record to go below 4 thousand km³. Chart shows we could still beat 2012! More on this in my Sep 26 Season Summary video for the Arctic sea ice.
UPDATE Sep 15: On the 15th, sea ice volume continued to drop according to the Frozen Earth Algorithm, and by twice as much as the same day 2012 melt. Hopefully, we’ll have fresh ‘real’ data from Wipneus in a day or two, as we are now in mid–month. Just let me emphasise that Wipneus is a Dutch sea ice hobbyist, and his mid–month updates are based on graphic files uploaded by the U of Washington PIOMAS project, which doesn’t publish any raw numbers in the middle of the month.
While sea ice extent figures are published about 300 days a year by the Japanese JAXA space agency, PIOMAS, in fact, only publishes sea ice volume figures about 10 days per year. Yes, you read that right: Only about 10 hours out of a year are spent uploading Arctic sea ice volume numbers to the Interwebs, and according to a tweet from one of the U of Washington PIOMAS scientists, these 10 hours every year are more or less spent in pyjamas in the sofa with a cup of coffee and an iPad. So it’s all on a hobbyist basis, done in their spare time, often in weekends, as these scientists are not supposed to do this most important work during office hours. (It’s even unclear if they get paid for uploading the actual numbers, and editing the 1–2 paragraphs of text — they don’t publish a new article or post — required on their decades old ice web page.) But of course there is a Donate Page, so you can send some money to these government–paid climate scientists.
So, as I was saying, in a day or two we may have more ‘official’ sea ice volume numbers, not just those turned out by the Frozen Earth Algorithm, but these ‘official’ numbers will be published by the Dutch hobbyist Wipneus (he uses a pseudonym for this work), provided he’s not ill or on holiday somewhere, offline. The University of Washington does not itself upload any numbers in the middle of the month, except when they are late at publishing the figures for the previous calendar month.
(In parenthesis, of course, it can be said to be an absurd situation that the most important data — volume — for the arguably most important aspect — Arctic sea ice — of the most important challenge facing humanity — global climate collapse — are entirely published by hobbyists working in their spare time, often in a pyjamas. Still, if you’re not born yesterday, you’ll have noticed that much of the rest of the so–called ‘Adult World’ is equally absurd: It’s like we humans have no compass whatsoever for what’s important and what’s not. Maybe that’s why our civilisation is collapsing?)
#GoodHopeModel September 9: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?
You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:
For some of the consequences of a summer half year Blue Ocean Event, press Play:
5 days before August was over, daily Arctic sea ice volume was already lower than the September minimums of 39 years; 1979–2011 + 2013–18, with about 20 more melt days to go. 2019 Melt Season average is 2nd lowest. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubbornly all–time low.
2019 213 6.371 2019 214 6.244 2019 215 6.119 2019 216 6.001 2019 217 5.895 2019 218 5.800 2019 219 5.719 2019 220 5.637 2019 221 5.524 2019 222 5.422 2019 223 5.325 2019 224 5.238 2019 225 5.135 2019 226 5.039 2019 227 4.948 2019 228 4.881 2019 229 4.809 2019 230 4.757 2019 231 4.707 2019 232 4.659 2019 233 4.606 2019 234 4.565 2019 235 4.513 2019 236 4.425 2019 237 4.344 2019 238 4.305 2019 239 4.266 2019 240 4.240 2019 241 4.224 2019 242 4.191 2019 243 4.170
Columns are Year, Day # and sea ice volume in thousand km³. So for instance volume for August 31st is 4,170 km³. If you want the full dataset since January 1 1979, it’s available from UW.