Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

In mid April we went back below the 10 mark, by averaging lower than 10 million km² sea ice extent. The worm has turned, and explicitly suggested in a dotted way below, is the possibility of 2nd lowest or even a new record low for the full calendar year.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

6 Million Killed Every 3 Days

Covering climate & sea ice collapse every single day for a 1000 days may seem somewhat strange, or manic or obsessive, to some. But if there is a significant chance that 7 Billion people will die — leaving only One Billion humans by the time those 7 Billions are offed — because of this, don’t you think that merits a 1000 days of close coverage?

If you do the absurd numbers of losing 7 Billion humans by the end of the next decade — that’s 7 Billion excess deaths by the end of 2029 — which is not unlikely when we lose global civilisation because of our collective brain damage, your thoughts will undoubtedly go to the Holocaust of 6 million people during the 2nd World War.

Now, what if your calculator told you that 6 million people would be killed every 3 days?

Another WW2 Holocaust every 3 days would of course “only” be the average kill rate, as spread out over a decade. The actual kill rate per day will be WAY higher. Many orders of magnitude higher.

So, if nothing else, I hope you sort of will be able to begin to understand why I and many other people are so worked up about the ice, and why I’ve chosen to cover it every day for a thousand days. It’s the biggest story in all of human history, and likely in all of planetary history, as these global civilisation collapses do not happen every day on a planet. The brutal Holocaust of 6 million humans every 3 days, not to mention the die–off of every other species of plant & animal, is kind of a big deal, and we need to give it some ink.

Now there’s only 250 days left of those 1000 days. Time flies!

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 2% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per May 1st. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, by the same date, was at 0%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 14% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per April 29th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, by the same date, was at 12%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

Good Hope Model April 28: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2023. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 4 years?

The Good Hope Model, explained further in the YouTube below, has recently gone through quality control updates & control calculations (which you should ALWAYS do to check that your math is right). Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already registered ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Arctic Sea Ice Volume

Arctic sea ice volume is currently 5th lowest, the 2019 Melt Season is just started. 2017 is the lowest year on record for volume, and you see it’s much lower than #2–5. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubborn.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The Year–To–Date average volume is 5th lowest for sea ice, and will likely be lower than the 2010s average by Sunday. Then it’s a battle with 2013, then the Top 3 lowest for the year is within reach!

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent is still 4th lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. That’s the 4 lowest years also being the 4 most recent years.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

In early March we went beyond the 14 mark for the first time since November 2016, by averaging higher than 14 thousand km³ sea ice volume. Now the worm has turned and we’ve been going down for a few weeks for the first time in 5 months, but of course, as soon as such a thing is published, the Arctic will twist and turn like the giant unpredictable Midgardsorm it is, or at least the pendulum will likely go back and forth a few times, before we truly know where we’re heading.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.