Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 9% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per April 6th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, by the same date, was at 5%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2023. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 4 years?

The Good Hope Model, explained further in the YouTube below, has recently gone through quality control updates & control calculations (which you should ALWAYS do to check that your math is right). Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already registered ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The average for the year for Arctic sea ice volume is now down to 6th lowest on record per April 4th, and we’ll very soon be 5th lowest. The new downward pull is a result of the record early peak for sea ice volume, which never before happened as early as March. These are however still early days, and a 94–day average, while much more reliable than just a daily figure, is a lot less indicative of where the year is going than, say, a 150–day or 200–day average. This could still go either way!

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent is still 6th lowest for sea ice in the Arctic, but the YTD graph peaked record early this year, just as predicted on this site, and will likely go 5th lowest by the end of this week.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Melting a Million

How fast and how early can we lose the first million km² of sea ice in the Arctic, after the winter ice maximum? Well, 2019 has set new records for both, as you will see in this graph.

The correct answer (and new record) is 21 days and April 2nd. April 15th used to be the previous record for earliest loss of a million, held by 2014 for 5 years. And tied with 2010, 2014 also held the record for fastest loss, counted from that year’s maximum.

These two new records entered into the Climate Collapse Hall of Fame may secure 2019 a rep as the Year That Will Live in Infamy, as well as the year we began to say bye–bye to organised humanity and global industrial civilisation.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

Since New Year we’ve climbed from 5th lowest annual average sea ice volume on record in the Arctic to a likely 6th lowest by April, and in early March we went beyond the 14 mark for the first time since November 2016, by averaging higher than 14 thousand km³ sea ice volume.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

In early March we went beyond the 10 mark for the first time since June 2016, by averaging higher than 10 million km² sea ice extent. Now the worm has turned, and explicitly suggested in a dotted way below, is the possibility of a new record low for the full calendar year. Of course, as soon as such a thing is suggested, the Arctic will twist and turn like the giant unpredictable Midgardsorm it is, or at least the pendulum will go back and forth a few times, before we truly know where we’re heading.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Arctic sea ice volume refreeze

Arctic sea ice volume refreeze has come 99% of the way since Summer Minimum per March 31st. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, by the same date, was at 87%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a full refreeze?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have e.g a 17 thousand km³ volume melt, and then the refreeze is also 17 thousand km³, then you have a full, or 100%, refreeze.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice refreezes compared to how much ice that melted away.

Into the Blue Again

Arctic sea ice extent is lowest on record for the date.

Meanwhile, the much more important data for sea ice volume can be seen in this zoomed out 10–year chart:

Sea ice volume showing an irreversible, post–Tipping Point collapse towards zero Arctic sea ice. Arguably, this is the most significant graph in all of human history, revealing both the lies of the UN and the larger Climate Change Community and the now inevitable fate of Global Industrial Civilisation.

Please help share this most important graph revealing persistent decline and a climate Tipping Point several decades back in our past: The true Tipping Point for ice is not at a future date or a yet to materialise future temperature threshold, it already happened.

Should you need more walk–through / explanation of the chart, I’ve got that in these fine videos: youtu.be/hXjbUY-Nt3Q | youtu.be/w8Hh5f68lhA | youtu.be/4DhzKbx21S8

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 5% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per March 29th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, by the same date, was at 2%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.