Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is now lower than 9.99 million km² and dropping by about 19 thousand km² per month. The light–green confidence interval suggests 2019 might go lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 2% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per May 9th. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, by the same date, was also at 2%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Just Another Graph — Nothing To See Here

Everyone seems to be treating this one like ‘just another graph’, and did you hear what some president said last night. It’s not just some graph, and if you choose to read on, you will even know why.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.
  1. XR says we have 11 years to avoid crossing key climate tipping points: We don’t.
  2. Debt Jubilee Collapse planners say a planned collapse can avoid triggering key climate tipping points: It can’t.
  3. Dr Sid Smith says we have max 10 years to avoid crossing key climate tipping points: We don’t.

Why not? Because we already crossed the key ice–climate tipping point decades ago.

This graph proves that. And Arctic sea ice is only the first element to go. We triggered that collapse, and in turn it will trigger all the other ice & permafrost collapses we need, in order to get to runaway warming, biocollapse, omnicide or whatever term you prefer or are most afraid of.

What you got above are three flavours of hope for the future — one of them branded as “enjoying the end of the world” — which all gamble on there being a FUTURE tipping point that we shouldn’t cross, and that this tipping point is not what we see in the REAR–VIEW mirror.

But that is exactly what we are looking at when we see this graph: A tipping point gone by.

I don’t expect ordinary people to understand what they do not like to hear, but I do expect scientists & researchers worth their salt to understand this.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 18% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per May 8th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, by the same date, was at 17%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

Good Hope Model May 7: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2023. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 4 years?

The Good Hope Model, explained further in the YouTube below, has recently gone through quality control updates & control calculations (which you should ALWAYS do to check that your math is right). Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already registered ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Arctic Sea Ice Volume

Daily Arctic sea ice volume is currently 3rd lowest, 2019 Melt Season average is 4th. 2017 is the lowest year on record for volume, and you see it’s much lower than #2–5. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubborn.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The Year–To–Date average volume is now 5th lowest for sea ice in the Arctic, and its next target is 2013 average volume.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent is still 4th lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. That’s the 4 lowest years also being the 4 most recent years: 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

In early March we went beyond the 14 mark for the first time since November 2016, by averaging higher than 14 thousand km³ sea ice volume. Now the worm has finally turned and we’ve been going down for a month for the first time in half a year.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

In mid April we went back below the 10 mark, by averaging lower than 10 million km² sea ice extent. The worm has turned, and explicitly suggested in a dotted way below, is the possibility of 2nd lowest or even a new record low for the full calendar year.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.