Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 60% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per July 11th. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 55%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

#GoodHopeModel July 10: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2023–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 4–16 years?

The Good Hope Model, explained further in the YouTube below, has recently gone through quality control updates & control calculations (which you should ALWAYS do to check that your math is right). Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already registered ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The Year–To–Date average volume is now 4th lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. Next target is 2011/2018.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic Burns Through 1979–2002 Late Summer Minimums by July 7

Sunday daily Arctic sea ice volume was already lower than the September minimums of 24 years; 1979–2002, with about 70 more melt days to go. 2019 Melt Season average is 2nd lowest. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubborn.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic Sea Ice Volume for June 2019 from PIOMAS

2019 152  18.963
2019 153  18.807
2019 154  18.624
2019 155  18.487
2019 156  18.302
2019 157  18.173
2019 158  18.041
2019 159  17.905
2019 160  17.743
2019 161  17.519
2019 162  17.191
2019 163  16.864
2019 164  16.582
2019 165  16.342
2019 166  16.036
2019 167  15.729
2019 168  15.463
2019 169  15.233
2019 170  14.993
2019 171  14.719
2019 172  14.446
2019 173  14.134
2019 174  13.890
2019 175  13.662
2019 176  13.406
2019 177  13.127
2019 178  12.815
2019 179  12.542
2019 180  12.294
2019 181  12.047

Columns are Year, Day # and sea ice volume in thousand km³. So for instance volume for June 30th is 12,047 km³. If you want the full dataset since January 1 1979, it’s available from UW.

Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

The 365–day running average for sea ice volume is now lower than 13.92 thousand km³ and dropping by about 120 km³ per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go 2nd lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is now lower than 9.97 million km² and dropping by about 15 thousand km² per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 41% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per July 2nd. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was at 40%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.