Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The Year–To–Date average volume is still 6th lowest for sea ice in the Arctic, but will likely go 5th lowest by the end of next week.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent went down to 5th lowest for sea ice in the Arctic on Saturday, after the YTD graph peaked record early this year. Now the 5 lowest years are also the 5 most recent years.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

In early March we went beyond the 14 mark for the first time since November 2016, by averaging higher than 14 thousand km³ sea ice volume. Now the worm has turned and we’ve been going down for about a week for the first time in 5 months, but of course, as soon as such a thing is published, the Arctic will twist and turn like the giant unpredictable Midgardsorm it is, or at least the pendulum will likely go back and forth a few times, before we truly know where we’re heading.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

In early March we went beyond the 10 mark for the first time since June 2016, by averaging higher than 10 million km² sea ice extent. Now the worm has turned, and explicitly suggested in a dotted way below, is the possibility of a new record low for the full calendar year. Of course, as soon as such a thing is suggested, the Arctic will twist and turn like the giant unpredictable Midgardsorm it is, or at least the pendulum will likely go back and forth a few times, before we truly know where we’re heading.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 1% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per April 7th. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, by the same date, was at 0%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 9% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per April 6th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, by the same date, was at 5%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2023. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 4 years?

The Good Hope Model, explained further in the YouTube below, has recently gone through quality control updates & control calculations (which you should ALWAYS do to check that your math is right). Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already registered ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The average for the year for Arctic sea ice volume is now down to 6th lowest on record per April 4th, and we’ll very soon be 5th lowest. The new downward pull is a result of the record early peak for sea ice volume, which never before happened as early as March. These are however still early days, and a 94–day average, while much more reliable than just a daily figure, is a lot less indicative of where the year is going than, say, a 150–day or 200–day average. This could still go either way!

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent is still 6th lowest for sea ice in the Arctic, but the YTD graph peaked record early this year, just as predicted on this site, and will likely go 5th lowest by the end of this week.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.