Third 1–Week Melt in the Arctic: 3rd Time’s the Charm?

March 9th to 16th saw the third 1–week melt or compaction of sea ice in the 2019 Arctic. That is, the sea ice extent reported by JAXA was lower than 7 days before for the third time this year, be it primarily due to wind or actual melting of ice. Arguably, every single day of the year contains a combination of melt and freeze, or compaction and expansion, so clearly, we’re talking about a net melt.

Possible annual sea ice maximum: March 9–16 saw weekly extent decline for the third time, and the 57,000 km² decrease was enough to take 2019 from 9th to 7th lowest.

Meanwhile, the much more important data for sea ice volume can be seen in this zoomed out 10–year chart:

Sea ice volume showing an irreversible, post–Tipping Point collapse towards zero Arctic sea ice. Arguably, this is the most significant graph in all of human history, revealing both the lies of the UN and the larger Climate Change Community and the now inevitable fate of Global Industrial Civilisation.

Please help share this most important graph revealing persistent decline and a climate Tipping Point several decades back in our past: The true Tipping Point for ice is not at a future date or a yet to materialise future temperature threshold, it already happened.

Should you need more walk–through / explanation of the chart, I’ve got that in these fine videos: youtu.be/hXjbUY-Nt3Q | youtu.be/w8Hh5f68lhA | youtu.be/4DhzKbx21S8

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The average for the year for Arctic sea ice volume is now up from 6th lowest last week to 7th per March 15th. These are however still early days, and a 74–day average, while much more reliable than just a daily figure, is a lot less indicative of where the year is going than, say, a 100–day or 200–day average. This could still go either way!

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The average for the year for Arctic sea ice extent is only 6th lowest per March 14th. These are however still early days, and a 73–day average, while much more reliable than just a daily figure, is a lot less indicative of where the year is going than, say, a 100–day or 200–day average. This could still go either way!

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Arctic sea ice volume refreeze

Arctic sea ice volume refreeze has come 97% of the way since Summer Minimum per March 9th. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, by the same date, was at 81%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a full refreeze?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have e.g a 17 thousand km³ volume melt, and then the refreeze is also 17 thousand km³, then you have a full, or 100%, refreeze.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice refreezes compared to how much ice that melted away.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 1% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per March 8th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, by the same date, was at 0%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

Since New Year we’ve climbed from 5th lowest annual average sea ice volume on record in the Arctic to a likely 6th lowest by April, and in early March we went beyond the 14 mark for the first time since November 2016, by averaging higher than 14 thousand km³ sea ice volume.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

Since New Year we’ve climbed from 2nd lowest annual average sea ice extent on record in the Arctic, back up to 4th lowest, and per now it seems very likely we’ll go higher than 10 million km² this month, for the first time since June 2016.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.