2018 Minimum Destroyed on August 16 | Arctic Sea Ice Volume

Friday’s daily Arctic sea ice volume was already lower than the September minimums of 35 years; 1979–2009 + 2013–15 + 2018, with about 30 more melt days to go. 2019 Melt Season average is 2nd lowest. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubbornly all–time low.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-july-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Sea Ice Extent Minimum | Top 5

Arctic sea ice extent went below 6 million km² during July for the first time on record, yet 2012 was first below 5. Chart shows 2012 as lowest in mid August. We have until August 22nd to beat the 2012 record for first below 4.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: Why only 5 years and why these particular years?
A: Elementary. These are the 5 years on record that came closest to a Blue Ocean Event.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 70% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per August 11th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was at 65%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 79% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per August 10th. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 76%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-july-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

#GoodHopeModel August 8: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-july-2019-from-piomas/

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Chances of a 2019 Blue Ocean Event

A week into August on this experimental plot, chances are settling at 30% for a late summer ice–free event in the Arctic Ocean. This means the potential is now significant, but on the other hand days are getting shorter and melting time is running out for the 2019 Blue Ocean Event.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data
Q: How do you calculate the chance percentage?
A: It’s a bit complicated, but the % is based on the loss we need in order to have a BOE, and whether or not we melt the required area in the CAB, day by day.
Q: Why focus only on the CAB?
A: CAB, or Central Arctic Basin, held 99.7% of the remaining ice area at minimum in Sep 2012.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.