Friday’s daily Arctic sea ice volume was already lower than the September minimums of 35 years; 1979–2009 + 2013–15 + 2018, with about 30 more melt days to go. 2019 Melt Season average is 2nd lowest. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubbornly all–time low.
Arctic sea ice extent went below 6 million km² during July for the first time on record, yet 2012 was first below 5. Chart shows 2012 as lowest in mid August. We have until August 22nd to beat the 2012 record for first below 4.
A week into August on this experimental plot, chances are settling at 30% for a late summer ice–free event in the Arctic Ocean. This means the potential is now significant, but on the other hand days are getting shorter and melting time is running out for the 2019 Blue Ocean Event.