½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

#GoodHopeModel July 20: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The Year–To–Date average volume is still 4th lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. Next target is 2011/2018.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent is still 3rd lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. And all 5 lowest years are also the 5 latest years: 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019. Next target is 2018.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic Burns Through 1979–2006 Late Summer Minimums by July 17

Tuesday daily Arctic sea ice volume was already lower than the September minimums of 28 years; 1979–2006, with about 60 more melt days to go. 2019 Melt Season average is 2nd lowest. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubborn.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

The 365–day running average for sea ice volume is now lower than 13.88 thousand km³ and dropping by about 125 km³ per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go 2nd lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Three Year Average at new Record Low

In the Arctic, the sea ice volume 3-yr average reached a new record low last week due to climate change. The new milestone was 13.4 thousand km³.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a 3–year average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3×365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest 3–year period compared to the 3–year periods before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is now lower than 9.95 million km² and dropping by about 31 thousand km² per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic Sea Ice at 50%

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 50% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per July 13th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was at 48%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

At 50% for sea ice volume meltdown, 2019 was 1 day behind 2012, down from 3 days behind at 25%. Currently, 2019 looks set to reach 75% within July, which would be a first in the satellite record.

At half–time for the year 2019, decadal averages for the 2010s H1 could be calculated. For the first 6 months of the year, the 2010s on average were at 19,861 km³. That’s down from 23,539 km³ for the 2000s, which amounts to a 15.6% drop per decade. (The 2nd half of the year has a much larger drop, but we’ll get to that when the data is in.)

The 2010s Q2 Average was 20,353 km³, down from 24,372 km³ for the 2000s, which means a 16.5% drop per decade. The 2010s Q1 Average was 19,364 km³, down from 22,697 km³ for the 2000s, which amounts to a 14.7% drop per decade. Please note how all of these decadal loss percentages are larger than the BS NASA drop rate of 12.8%, which is published for political purposes, and please also note that the drop rate will increase for Q3 & Q4 of the 2010s decade, as Q1 & Q2 have the smallest drop of the year. Also expect the full year decadal drop rate for the 2010s from the 2000s to be larger than 16.5% (Q2 drop rate), and of course way larger than the Wishful Thinking 12.8% drop rate from NASA.

And if you happen to be an Abrupt Climate Change Denier, send your thanks to NASA, as that’s your tax money at work, if you’re a citizen of the USA. As long as they lie to you every day, you don’t have to worry about a thing.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Five Year Average at new Record Low

In the Arctic, the sea ice volume 5-yr average reached a new record low this week due to climate change. The new milestone was 14.1 thousand km³.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a 5–year average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 5×365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest 5–year period compared to the 5–year periods before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 60% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per July 11th. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 55%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-june-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.