Arctic Sea Ice Volume already lower than 1979 Sep 20

Yesterday daily Arctic sea ice volume was already lower than on September 20th, 1979, with almost 100 melt days to go to that date. 2019 Melt Season average is 2nd lowest. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubborn.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Cry Your Eyes Out

Meteorologist Nick Humphrey talks about the Climate Tipping Point in the 1980s. The point of no return, after which we cannot return. Interviewed by Kevin Hester & Guy McPherson.

Nobody knows how long
Rustling leaves unrhyme
Lullaby breeze unsung
Babel of dreams 
Unwinds in memory

As bad as bad becomes
It’s not a part of you
And love is only sleeping
Wrapped in neglect

Time it’s time to live,
Time it’s time to live through the pain
Time it’s time to live
Now that it’s all over
Time it’s time to live,
Time it’s time to live through the pain
Now that it’s over,
Now that it’s over

Kissing a grey garden
Shadow and shade
Sunlight treads softly

As bad as bad becomes
It’s not a part of you
Contempt is ever breeding
Trapped in itself

Time it’s time to live,
Time it’s time to live through the pain
Time it’s time to live
Now that it’s all over
Time it’s time to live,
Time it’s time to live through the pain
Now that it’s over,
Now that it’s over,
Now that it’s over

As bad as bad becomes
It’s not a part of you
The wicked and the weeping
Ramble or run

Time it’s time to live,
Time it’s time to live for living
Time it’s time to live
Now that it’s all over
Time it’s time to live,
Time it’s time to live for living
Time it’s time to live
Now that it’s all over

Now that it’s over,
Now that it’s over

Now that it’s over

Now that it’s over

Rest your head

“Time It’s Time” by Talk Talk (1985), written by Mark David Hollis and Timothy Alan Friese-Greene.

Chances of a 2019 Blue Ocean Event

Still early days for this plot, but it shows the chance increasing as we get into peak melt. And you know the drill by now: This auto–generated plot will update daily and be posted here regularly.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data
Q: How do you calculate the chance percentage?
A: It’s a bit complicated, but the % is based on the loss we need in order to have a BOE, and whether or not we melt the required area in the CAB, day by day.
Q: Why focus only on the CAB?
A: CAB, or Central Arctic Basin, held 99.7% of the remaining ice area at minimum in Sep 2012.

Annual Average Sea Ice Extent

The 365–day running average for sea ice extent is now lower than 9.98 million km² and dropping by about 9 thousand km² per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Ten Year Average at new Record Low

In the Arctic, the sea ice volume 10-yr average reached a new record low this week due to climate change. The new milestone was 14.2 thousand km³.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make a 10–year average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 10×365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest 10–year period compared to the 10–year periods before that.

Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

The 365–day running average for sea ice volume is now lower than 14.05 thousand km³ and dropping by about 60 km³ per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go 2nd lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 30% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per June 10th. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was at 29%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 22% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per June 9th. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 21%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.