2019 Qualified for 2nd Lowest on August 27 | Arctic Sea Ice Volume

5 days before August was over, daily Arctic sea ice volume was already lower than the September minimums of 39 years; 1979–2011 + 2013–18, with about 20 more melt days to go. 2019 Melt Season average is 2nd lowest. Ten–Year Trend though, is still very stubbornly all–time low.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: How can anyone make a decadal average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 3650 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in the latest decade compared to the decades before that.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Sea Ice Volume Minimum | Top 5

Arctic sea ice volume went below 6 thousand km³ record early (just as for 10, 9, 8 & 7). But this chart shows we didn’t quite manage to beat the 2012 record for first below 5, or 4.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS
Q: Why only 5 years and why these particular years?
A: Elementary. These are the 5 years on record that came closest to a Blue Ocean Event.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic Sea Ice Volume for August 2019 from PIOMAS

2019 213   6.371
2019 214   6.244
2019 215   6.119
2019 216   6.001
2019 217   5.895
2019 218   5.800
2019 219   5.719
2019 220   5.637
2019 221   5.524
2019 222   5.422
2019 223   5.325
2019 224   5.238
2019 225   5.135
2019 226   5.039
2019 227   4.948
2019 228   4.881
2019 229   4.809
2019 230   4.757
2019 231   4.707
2019 232   4.659
2019 233   4.606
2019 234   4.565
2019 235   4.513
2019 236   4.425
2019 237   4.344
2019 238   4.305
2019 239   4.266
2019 240   4.240
2019 241   4.224
2019 242   4.191
2019 243   4.170

Columns are Year, Day # and sea ice volume in thousand km³. So for instance volume for August 31st is 4,170 km³. If you want the full dataset since January 1 1979, it’s available from UW.

Sea Ice Extent Minimum | Top 5

Arctic sea ice extent went below 6 million km² during July for the first time on record, yet 2012 was first below 5. Chart shows 2012 as lowest in August, but 2019 extent may still plunge after the recent cyclones.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: Why only 5 years and why these particular years?
A: Elementary. These are the 5 years on record that came closest to a Blue Ocean Event.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Volume

The Year–To–Date average volume is still 2nd lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. Our final target is record low 2017. Note that the 2000s average just reentered this plot after the summer, right below the 21k upper edge, while this year’s at 16.2. That’s climate change for ya.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-july-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Year-To-Date Average Sea Ice Extent

The Year–To–Date average extent is still 2nd lowest for sea ice in the Arctic. All 4 lowest years are also the 4 latest years: 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019. The last target is record low 2016.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone make a year-to-date average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for every day so far this year, divide by the number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown

Arctic sea ice extent meltdown has come 76% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per September 1st. The lowest extent year ever, 2016, for comparison, was also at 76%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1 million km² sea ice extent in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown

Arctic sea ice volume meltdown has come 84% of the way from Winter Maximum to a Blue Ocean Event per August 31st. The lowest volume year ever, 2017, for comparison, was at 81%.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-july-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone know if there is a Blue Ocean Event?
A: Easy. Use a computer. If you have less than 1000 km³ sea ice volume in the Arctic, then you have a Blue Ocean Event.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know when the Arctic Ocean goes ice–free. Basing this on satellite measurements instead of gut feeling makes your conversations more interesting.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

½ Year Arctic Blue Ocean Estimates

#GoodHopeModel August 29: Our first ½ year long Arctic Blue Ocean Event could come as early as 2024–35. No sea ice for 6 months, in as little as 5–16 years?

The Good Hope Model: Instead of trying to build a huge model of the entire planet inside a computer, the Good Hope Model applies 40 years of already recorded ice data, or what has already happened, and looks at how rapidly we have been losing ice. Different long & short averages of this decline provide different estimates for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice for 6 consecutive months.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-july-2019-from-piomas/

You can learn more about the Good Hope Model on YouTube:

For some of the consequences of a summer half year Blue Ocean Event, press Play:

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.

Annual Average Sea Ice Volume

The 365–day running average for sea ice volume is now lower than 13.75 thousand km³ and dropping by about 85 km³ per month. The prognosis suggests 2019 may go 2nd lowest on record for all–year average.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-july-2019-from-piomas/
Q: How can anyone make an annual average graph?
A: Easy. Use a computer. Add all the ice for the latest 365 days, divide by that number of days.
Q: Why would I even do that?
A: Let’s say you want to know how much ice we have in 2019 compared to other years.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.