Chances of a 2019 Blue Ocean Event

In late July on this experimental plot, chances are approaching 25% for a late summer ice–free event in the Arctic Ocean. This means the potential is still low, but on the other hand the real action starts in August with this CAB area indicator for a Blue Ocean Event.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data
Q: How do you calculate the chance percentage?
A: It’s a bit complicated, but the % is based on the loss we need in order to have a BOE, and whether or not we melt the required area in the CAB, day by day.
Q: Why focus only on the CAB?
A: CAB, or Central Arctic Basin, held 99.7% of the remaining ice area at minimum in Sep 2012.