Still early days for this plot, but it shows the chance increasing as we get into peak melt. And you know the drill by now: This auto–generated plot will update daily and be posted here regularly.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here:
Q: How do you calculate the chance percentage?
A: It’s a bit complicated, but the % is based on the loss we need in order to have a BOE, and whether or not we melt the required area in the CAB, day by day.
Q: Why focus only on the CAB?
A: CAB, or Central Arctic Basin, held 99.7% of the remaining ice area at minimum in Sep 2012.