Chances of a 2019 Blue Ocean Event

A week into August on this experimental plot, chances are settling at 30% for a late summer ice–free event in the Arctic Ocean. This means the potential is now significant, but on the other hand days are getting shorter and melting time is running out for the 2019 Blue Ocean Event.

Q: Where’s the data source for this plot?
A: Here: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data
Q: How do you calculate the chance percentage?
A: It’s a bit complicated, but the % is based on the loss we need in order to have a BOE, and whether or not we melt the required area in the CAB, day by day.
Q: Why focus only on the CAB?
A: CAB, or Central Arctic Basin, held 99.7% of the remaining ice area at minimum in Sep 2012.

Due in large part to ongoing Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice our Frozen Earth is Going South.